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Geopolitics

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?

29% say yes

Up 6 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by September 22, 2026.

Polymarket lists November 30, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until September 22, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 29¢ means about a 29% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (September 22, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: There is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM .

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.29%

    What has to happen

    There is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.71%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by September 22, 2026.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 32¢ to 29¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus1h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Tue, Sep 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?: explained simply · MarketWeaver