Geopolitics

Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?

40% say yes

Up 1 point today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 40¢ means about a 40% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (June 30, 2027), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date ().

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.40%
What has to happen
Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.60%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by June 30, 2027.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 40%No 60%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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