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Aren Baybars vs Mario Mansilla Diez: who will win?

>99% say the Aren Baybars win

No price change recorded today yet.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

If postponed, it can stay open until Nov 17, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Aren Baybars and Mario Mansilla Diez play a match in M25 Valencia, scheduled for November 3, 2026 at 4:30 AM .

Possible results

Aren BaybarsThe Aren Baybars win and moves on.>99%
What has to happen
Aren Baybars advances against Mario Mansilla Diez.
Mario Mansilla DiezMario Mansilla Diez wins and moves on.<1%
What has to happen
Mario Mansilla Diez advances against Aren Baybars.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 17, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print

If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.

Price chart

Aren Baybars >99%Mario Mansilla Diez <1%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 11.6 points in about 15 minutes, from 86.5¢ to 98.1¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 4:30 AM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.
53m ago
Trading rose to about 15 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF).”
“If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 17, 2026, 11:59…”
“If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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