Geopolitics

Israel x Iran continues through November 6?

88% say yes

Up 4 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 88¢ means about an 88% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: A state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.88%
What has to happen
A state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.12%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.

Price chart

Yes 88%No 12%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 11:59 PM IRST.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
38m ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran…”
“If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.”
“Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.