Geopolitics
Israel x Iran continues through November 1?
93% say yes
No price change recorded today yet.
Decided by major news reports, by November 1, 2026.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 93¢ means about a 93% chance.
Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 1, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: A state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
Possible results
YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.93%
What has to happen
A state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.7%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 1, 2026.
The one trap
If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.
Price chart
Recorded moves
The price fell 31.2 points in about 15 minutes, from 92.1¢ to 60.9¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago
