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Geopolitics

Israel election: will Likud lose ?

97% say yes

Up 1 point today.

Decided by the election on October 27, 2026, using major news reports.

Polymarket lists October 27, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 97¢ means about a 97% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. Yes wins if: The Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election.

Possible results

  • YesThe person named in the question wins the election.97%

    What has to happen

    The Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.3%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by October 27, 2026.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by gov.il (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (gov.il) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: gov.il (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

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