Geopolitics

Iran leadership change by November 30?

8% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 30, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 8¢ means about an 8% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date ().

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.8%
What has to happen
The Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.92%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 8%No 92%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 7 times the usual hourly amount).
44m ago
Trading picked up (about 7 times the usual hourly amount).
1h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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