Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
No live price for this market yet.
Decided by official government/military statements plus a Credible reporting. When major news outlets agree on a result. Polymarket often uses this before official counts are final. credible reporting.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
Possible results
There is no live market linked to this card yet, so there are no prices to show.
The one trap›
The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.
Show details for experienced traders
The details
No live order bookRule note: needs formal signingNo single official source
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Yes orders vs No orders near the price
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no order list read
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
settles on the date it takes effect
Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)
Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.
Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
“This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date…”
“The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.”
“An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes…”
