Culture

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?

44% say yes

Up 12 points today.

Decided by Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter", by November 2, 2026, 12:00 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 44¢ means about a 44% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.44%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.56%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Price chart

Yes 44%No 56%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 37.5¢ to 40.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com2h ago
The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 36¢ to 39.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com3h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: tracker count onlySettled by xtracker.polymarket.com

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Deadline: Counting window: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 31 12:00 PM ET to November 2…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.