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Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?

<1% say yes

Down 28 points today.

Decided by Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter", by October 29, 2026.

Polymarket lists October 31, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until October 29, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.<1%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by October 29, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.>99%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 4.6¢ to 0.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com21m ago

  • The price fell 5.9 points in about 15 minutes, from 7.5¢ to 1.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com1h ago

  • The price fell 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 11.5¢ to 7¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: tracker count onlySettled by xtracker.polymarket.com
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Deadline: Counting window: Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 29 12:00 PM ET to October 31…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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