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Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?

16% say yes

Up 12 points today.

Decided by Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter", by October 27, 2026.

Polymarket lists November 3, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until October 27, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 16¢ means about a 16% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.16%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by October 27, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.84%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Price chart
-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: tracker count onlySettled by xtracker.polymarket.com
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Deadline: Counting window: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).

    41m ago

  • Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).

    1h ago

  • Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).

    2h ago

  • Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).

    2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 27 12:00 PM ET to November 3…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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