Culture

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?

13% say yes

Up 3 points today.

Decided by Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter", by October 26, 2026.

Polymarket lists October 28, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until October 26, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 13¢ means about a 13% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.13%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by October 28, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.87%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Price chart

Yes 13%No 87%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 3.7 points in about 15 minutes, from 22.3¢ to 18.6¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com2h ago
The price rose 10.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 11.1¢ to 21.7¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com3h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: tracker count onlySettled by xtracker.polymarket.com

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

Tracker Counter Window

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Deadline: Counting window: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Polymarket resolves strictly on xtracker.polymarket.com (deleted posts count if live ~5 minutes.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).
7m ago
Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).
37m ago
Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).
1h ago
Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).
2h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 26 12:00 PM ET to October 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

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