Culture

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?

2% say yes

Up 1 point today.

Decided by Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter", by October 23, 2026.

Polymarket lists October 30, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until October 23, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 2¢ means about a 2% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.2%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by October 30, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.98%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Price chart

Yes 2%No 98%

-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

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The details

Rule note: tracker count onlySettled by xtracker.polymarket.com

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Deadline: Counting window: Fri, Oct 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Fri, Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).
11m ago
Trading picked up (about 6 times the usual hourly amount).
42m ago
Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).
2h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

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