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Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?

85% say yes

Up 46 points today.

Decided by Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter", by November 4, 2026, 12:00 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 85¢ means about an 85% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe count or result in the question is what actually happens.85%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by November 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.15%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 79.5¢ to 84.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com20m ago

  • The price rose 16.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 62.5¢ to 79¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com50m ago

  • The price rose 8.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 59¢ to 67.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: tracker count onlySettled by xtracker.polymarket.com
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Deadline: Counting window: Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 2 12:00 PM ET to November 4…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?: explained simply · MarketWeaver