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Esports

PRIVATE vs Dark Moon: who will win?

97% say Dark Moon wins

Down 78 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

If postponed, it can stay open until Nov 18, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 97¢ means about a 97% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

PRIVATE and Dark Moon play a Counter-Strike match at the Exort Fiesta , scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM .

Possible results

  • PRIVATEPRIVATE wins.3%

    What has to happen

    PRIVATE win the match against Dark Moon.

  • Dark MoonDark Moon wins.97%

    What has to happen

    Dark Moon win the match against PRIVATE.

The one trap

If a team pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.

See all fine print
  • If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, the market settles as 50-50.
  • If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET).
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 8.2 points in about 15 minutes, from 10.5¢ to 2.3¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: hltv.org47m ago

  • The price fell 6.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 10¢ to 4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: hltv.org1h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by hltv.org
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on hltv.org official match results (credible reporting only if not published within 2 hours). Posts final results after the match. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. If postponed, it must be rescheduled to start by Nov 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it settles 50-50. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 7:00 AM ET.

Source named: hltv.org (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.

    16m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org.”
  • “If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar…”
  • “If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Dark Moon (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs: explained simply · MarketWeaver