Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
Possible results
There is no live market linked to this card yet, so there are no prices to show.
The one trap›
If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.
Show details for experienced traders
The details
No live order bookRule note: the condition as writtenNo source named
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Yes orders vs No orders near the price
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no order list read
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
settles on the condition as written
Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No resolution source named in the rules
Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.
Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.”
