CFB

New Mexico vs Nevada: who will win?

82% say New Mexico wins

Up 34 points today.

Decided when the match ends. It is scheduled for November 6 at 9:00 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 82¢ means about an 82% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

The game is scheduled for November 6 at 9:00 PM ET.

Possible results

New MexicoNew Mexico wins.82%
What has to happen
New Mexico win the game by 11 or more points.
NevadaNevada wins.18%
What has to happen
Nevada beats New Mexico, under the rules.

The one trap

If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it is played.

See all fine print

If the game is canceled with no make-up game, the market settles 50-50.

Price chart

New Mexico 82%Nevada 18%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 18.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 48.5¢ to 67¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: NCAA official (implied)29m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeSettled by NCAA official (implied)

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on The rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules (implied: NCAA official result)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 6 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago
Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
3h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
3h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
4h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Nevada".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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