Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Named source: Chainlink data stream

Explain it simply

Built from this market’s own rules and prices. It is research, not a recommendation.

1.What this market is really asking

This market is about: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET.

2.Words to know

ET: Eastern Time, the time zone of New York.
Share: One unit of a market. A share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Official source: The organization named in the rules whose report decides the result.
Settle (resolve): When a market is decided and shares pay out. Venues use “resolve” to mean the same thing.
UMA: The system Polymarket uses to confirm results. If someone disputes a result, people who hold UMA tokens vote on it.
Polymarket: The prediction market whose prices we show. Its main site is not available to US residents.
Kalshi: A US exchange that lists similar markets. It is regulated by the CFTC, and its rules can differ from Polymarket’s.

3.Each possible result

There is no live market linked to this card yet, so there are no prices to show.

4.How the payout works

Each share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t. There is no live price for this market yet.

5.Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

6.Fine print in plain English

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

Live price & chartPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Show details for experienced traders

The details

No live order bookRule note: stated condition, time zone not statedSettled by Chainlink data stream

Chance the crowd gives Yes

no live price

Buyers vs sellers near the price

no order book read

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

Stated Condition

Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
Official source: settlement runs on Chainlink price data stream (data.chain.link). Updates continuously (oracle / index feed). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 10:00 AM (date from market title) Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 10:00 AM (date from market title) (time zone not stated). Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (Chainlink data stream).

Source named: Chainlink data stream (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: Chainlink data stream

Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Medium 30

Who settles it (official source)

Chainlink price data stream (data.chain.link) · https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams

Deadline and time zone

Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 10:00 AM (date from market title) unspecified

What counts as Yes

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range."

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (Chainlink data stream); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (Chainlink data stream). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief Chainlink USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.