Boxing

Canelo vs Mbilli: who will win?

99% say Canelo wins

Up 28 points today.

Decided when the match ends. It is scheduled for October 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 99¢ means about a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Canelo Álvarez and Christian Mbilli play a match in Boxing, scheduled for October 31, 2026.

Possible results

CaneloCanelo wins.99%
What has to happen
Canelo Álvarez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Mbilli in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, scheduled for October 31, 2026.
MbilliMbilli wins.1%
What has to happen
Christian Mbilli is officially declared the winner.

The one trap

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "50-50." This market will resolve based on the official result announced at the conclusion of the event.

Price chart

Canelo 99%Mbilli 1%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 30.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 67¢ to 97.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus8m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve based on the official result announced at the conclusion of the event.”
“If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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