MarketWeaver
Log inSign up

Other

Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?

73% say yes

Up 38 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by January 4, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 73¢ means about a 73% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (January 4, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.73%

    What has to happen

    Both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats have a seat count of 250 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 54 or more in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.27%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by January 4, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print
  • If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.
  • If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Loading...

Recorded moves

  • The price rose 23 points in about 15 minutes, from 50.5¢ to 73.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus7m ago

  • The price rose 9.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 40¢ to 49.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Mon, Jan 4, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:”
  • “If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat…”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.

By joining you agree to our Privacy Policy.

Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?: explained simply · MarketWeaver