Bitcoin

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 30?

87% say Down

Down 38 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by October 30, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 87¢ means about an 87% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

UpThe result is “Up”.13%
What has to happen
The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 30 '26 12:00 ET candle.
DownThe result is “Down”.87%
What has to happen
The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 30 '26 12:00 ET candle.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

See all fine print

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price chart

Up 13%Down 87%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 7.5¢ to 10.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)16m ago
The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 9.5¢ to 6.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)51m ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Fri, Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

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