Bitcoin

Bitcoin Up or Down on November 3?

57% say Down

Down 8 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by November 3, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 57¢ means about a 57% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

UpThe result is “Up”.43%
What has to happen
The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 2 '26 12:00 PM ET (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Nov 3 '26 12:00 ET candle.
DownThe result is “Down”.57%
What has to happen
The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 2 '26 12:00 PM ET (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Nov 3 '26 12:00 ET candle.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

See all fine print

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price chart

Up 43%Down 57%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 10.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 31.5¢ to 42¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)11m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top…”
“If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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