Bitcoin

Bitcoin Up or Down on November 14?

>99% say Down

Down 50 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by November 14, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

UpThe result is “Up”.<1%
What has to happen
The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 13 '26 12:00 PM ET (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Nov 14 '26 12:00 ET candle.
DownThe result is “Down”.>99%
What has to happen
The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 13 '26 12:00 PM ET (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Nov 14 '26 12:00 ET candle.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

See all fine print

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price chart

Up <1%Down >99%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 4.5¢ to 7.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)7h ago
The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 9.5¢ to 6.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)11h ago
The price rose 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 5.5¢ to 9¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)12h ago
The price fell 9 points in about 15 minutes, from 14.5¢ to 5.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)13h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 11 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
3h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
4h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
4h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
8h ago
Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.
8h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
9h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
9h ago
Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
10h ago
Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.
11h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
12h ago
Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.
13h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top…”
“If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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