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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1?

89% say Up

Up 38 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by November 1, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 89¢ means about an 89% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

Possible results

  • UpThe result is “Up”.89%

    What has to happen

    The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 31 '26 12:00 PM ET (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Nov 1 '26 12:00 ET candle.

  • DownThe result is “Down”.11%

    What has to happen

    The "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 31 '26 12:00 PM ET (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Nov 1 '26 12:00 ET candle.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

See all fine print
  • If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price rose 8.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 75.5¢ to 83.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)15m ago

  • The price rose 5.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 70.5¢ to 76¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)53m ago

  • The price fell 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 75¢ to 70¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)1h ago

  • The price rose 11.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 67¢ to 78.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top…”
  • “If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1?: explained simply · MarketWeaver