Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?

Named source: binance.com (1m candle) · End date Oct 28, 12:00 PM ET · Live market: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Explain it simply

Built from this market’s own rules and prices. It is research, not a recommendation.

1.What this market is really asking

This market asks: will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules.

2.Words to know

Close price: The last price in a set time window named in the rules, read from the exchange the rules name.
ET: Eastern Time, the time zone of New York.
Share: One unit of a market. A share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Price in cents (¢): Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and work like a percent chance. 94¢ means the crowd gives it about a 94% chance.
Official source: The organization named in the rules whose report decides the result.
Settle (resolve): When a market is decided and shares pay out. Venues use “resolve” to mean the same thing.
UMA: The system Polymarket uses to confirm results. If someone disputes a result, people who hold UMA tokens vote on it.
Polymarket: The prediction market whose prices we show. Its main site is not available to US residents.
Kalshi: A US exchange that lists similar markets. It is regulated by the CFTC, and its rules can differ from Polymarket’s.

3.Each possible result

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 28Crowd’s chance: more than 99%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 28Crowd’s chance: more than 99%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 28Crowd’s chance: about 97%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28Crowd’s chance: about 17%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 28Crowd’s chance: about 2%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 28Crowd’s chance: less than 1%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: The Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.

Each result is its own market, so these chances come from separate prices and may not add up to exactly 100%.

4.How the payout works

Each Yes share pays $1 if Yes wins and $0 if not. A No share is the other way around.

At 17¢, the crowd gives Yes about a 17% chance.

Prices change all the time. This is a snapshot of what traders think, not a forecast from us.

5.Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

6.Fine print in plain English

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of the price of Bitcoin being above $82,000 on October 28 at about 17%.

It dipped 4 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

Live price & chartPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, the price history and every real price move here.

See Pro

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

Timestamp Candle Close

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (date from market title). Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle Close).

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Low 15

Who settles it (official source)

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored · https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Deadline and time zone

Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Timestamp Candle CloseOnly the final "Close" of the single 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at the stated timestamp counts. Earlier spikes or dips during the day do not matter. Rule text: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in th…"

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle Close). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief binance.com USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.