Bitcoin

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 30?

34% say yes

Down 44 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by October 30, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 34¢ means about a 34% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules. Yes wins if: The Binance 1 minute for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.

Possible results

YesThe price ends up where the question says, at the time and source the rules name.34%
What has to happen
The Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
NoIt doesn’t happen.66%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by October 30, 2026.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

Price chart

Yes 34%No 66%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 14.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 42.5¢ to 28.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)34m ago
The price rose 18.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 26¢ to 44.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)1h ago

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Fri, Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 16 times the usual hourly amount).
4m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

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