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Bitcoin

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 3?

17% say yes

Down 43 points today.

Decided by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, by November 3, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 17¢ means about a 17% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

The price is read from Binance (the BTC/USDT pair), at the time named in the rules. Yes wins if: The Binance 1 minute for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.

Possible results

  • YesThe price ends up where the question says, at the time and source the rules name.17%

    What has to happen

    The Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.83%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by November 3, 2026.

The one trap

It uses the Binance price at 12:00 ET, not prices from other exchanges or websites.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 20.5¢ to 16.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)22m ago

  • The price fell 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 24.5¢ to 21.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)52m ago

  • The price rose 7.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 18.5¢ to 25.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)1h ago

  • The price rose 3 points in about 15 minutes, from 18.5¢ to 21.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: binance.com (1m candle)2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date…”
  • “The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top…”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 3?: explained simply · MarketWeaver