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Fed & Rates

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 after the October 2026 meeting?

1% say Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps)

Down 1 point today.

Decided by major news reports, by October 30, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps)Borrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.1%

    What has to happen

    The bank raises its rate by 0.25 percentage points.

  • Lower by 0.25 points (25 bps)Borrowing tends to cost less, and savings tend to pay a bit less.<1%

    What has to happen

    The bank lowers its rate by 0.25 percentage points.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market settles as the "No change" bracket.

Price chart
-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (40/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Fri, Oct 30, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?: explained simply · MarketWeaver