Tennis

Tien vs Minaur: who will win?

>99% say Alex de Minaur wins

Down 49 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

Polymarket lists November 4, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until November 11, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Learner Tien and Alex de Minaur play a tennis match at the Erste Bank Open, scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 5:00 AM .

Possible results

Learner TienLearner Tien wins and moves on.<1%
What has to happen
Learner Tien advances against Alex de Minaur.
Alex de MinaurAlex de Minaur wins and moves on.>99%
What has to happen
Alex de Minaur advances against Learner Tien.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 11, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print

If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.

Price chart

Learner Tien <1%Alex de Minaur >99%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 10 points in about 15 minutes, from 10.5¢ to 0.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: ATP official2m ago
The price fell 31.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 46.5¢ to 15.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: ATP official32m ago
The price fell 7.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 50.5¢ to 43¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: ATP official1h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeSettled by ATP official

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed; cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 5:00 AM ET.

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Alex de Minaur in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Learner Tien. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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