MarketWeaver
Log inSign up

Tennis

Paul vs Alcaraz: who will win?

76% say Carlos Alcaraz wins

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided when the match ends. It is scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM .

Polymarket lists November 6, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until November 13, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 76¢ means about a 76% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz play a tennis match at the Erste Bank Open, scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.

Possible results

  • Tommy PaulTommy Paul wins and moves on.24%

    What has to happen

    Tommy Paul advances against Carlos Alcaraz.

  • Carlos AlcarazCarlos Alcaraz wins and moves on.76%

    What has to happen

    Carlos Alcaraz advances against Tommy Paul.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 13, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print
  • If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
  • If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
  • The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeSettled by ATP official
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed; cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Fri, Oct 30, 2026, 10:00 AM ET.

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).

    29m ago

  • Trading picked up (about 7 times the usual hourly amount).

    1h ago

  • Trading picked up (about 7 times the usual hourly amount).

    2h ago

  • Trading picked up (about 6 times the usual hourly amount).

    2h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Big trades across all markets