Tennis

Michelsen vs Fils: who will win?

57% say Arthur Fils wins

Up 9 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

Polymarket lists November 5, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until November 12, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 57¢ means about a 57% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Alex Michelsen and Arthur Fils play a tennis match at the Swiss Indoors Basel, scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM .

Possible results

Alex MichelsenAlex Michelsen wins and moves on.43%
What has to happen
Alex Michelsen advances against Arthur Fils.
Arthur FilsArthur Fils wins and moves on.57%
What has to happen
Arthur Fils advances against Alex Michelsen.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 12, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print

If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.

Price chart

Alex Michelsen 43%Arthur Fils 57%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 32 points in about 15 minutes, from 64.5¢ to 32.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: ATP official7m ago
The price rose 36 points in about 15 minutes, from 34.5¢ to 70.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Named source: ATP official56m ago

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeSettled by ATP official

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed; cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 5:00 AM ET.

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 17 times the usual hourly amount).
2h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Arthur Fils in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Arthur Fils. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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