MarketWeaver
Log inSign up

Tennis

Michelsen vs Alcaraz: who will win?

>99% say Carlos Alcaraz wins

No price change recorded today yet.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

If postponed, it can stay open until Nov 18, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Alex Michelsen and Carlos Alcaraz play a tennis match at the Rolex Paris Masters, scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 1:00 PM .

Possible results

  • Alex MichelsenAlex Michelsen wins and moves on.<1%

    What has to happen

    Alex Michelsen advances against Carlos Alcaraz.

  • Carlos AlcarazCarlos Alcaraz wins and moves on.>99%

    What has to happen

    Carlos Alcaraz advances against Alex Michelsen.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 18, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print
  • If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
  • If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
  • The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Loading...

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 6.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 6.5¢ to 0.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: ATP official20m ago

  • The price fell 24 points in about 15 minutes, from 30.5¢ to 6.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: ATP official50m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by ATP official
Fine-print risk
Low (10/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ET.

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour.”
  • “If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59…”
  • “If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets

Get notified when Pro opens.

One email when Pro opens, plus occasional product news. Unsubscribe anytime. Never shared or rented.

By joining you agree to our Privacy Policy.