Tennis

Medvedev vs Alcaraz: who will win?

68% say Carlos Alcaraz wins

No price change recorded today yet.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

Polymarket lists November 7, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until November 14, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 68¢ means about a 68% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz play a tennis match at the Erste Bank Open, scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 5:00 AM .

Possible results

Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev wins and moves on.32%
What has to happen
Daniil Medvedev advances against Carlos Alcaraz.
Carlos AlcarazCarlos Alcaraz wins and moves on.68%
What has to happen
Carlos Alcaraz advances against Daniil Medvedev.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 14, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print

If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
The official result comes from the ATP Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.

Price chart

Daniil Medvedev 32%Carlos Alcaraz 68%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeSettled by ATP official

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, Yes orders vs No orders in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed; cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 5:00 AM ET.

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 3 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 9 times the usual hourly amount.
10m ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
40m ago
Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.
1h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour.”
“If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59…”
“If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Big trades across all markets