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Tennis

Medvedev vs Aguilar: who will win?

>99% say Daniil Medvedev wins

Up 44 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

Polymarket lists November 3, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until November 10, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) and Daniel Merida Aguilar (+1.5) play a tennis match at the Set Handicap, scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00 AM .

Possible results

  • Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev wins.>99%

    What has to happen

    Daniil Medvedev wins by 2 or more sets than Daniel Merida Aguilar, based on the final completed score.

  • Daniel Merida AguilarDaniel Merida Aguilar wins.<1%

    What has to happen

    Daniel Merida Aguilar beats Daniil Medvedev, under the rules.

The one trap

Otherwise, it settles as "Daniel Merida Aguilar." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round.

See all fine print
  • For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Daniil Medvedev can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and the market settles as "Daniel Merida Aguilar." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price rose 45.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 55¢ to 100¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    No official data feed16m ago

  • The price rose 57.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 19¢ to 76¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    No official data feed55m ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeNo source named
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed; cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 5:00 AM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins by 2 or more sets than Daniel Merida Aguilar, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Daniel Merida Aguilar." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Daniil Medvedev can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Daniel Merida Aguilar." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

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Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Daniel Merida Aguilar (+1.5): explained simply · MarketWeaver