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Will Rwanda win on 2026-11-13?

6% say Rwanda wins

Down 4 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 13, 2026, 2:00 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 6¢ means about a 6% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 13, 2026, 2:00 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

MaliMali wins.40%
What has to happen
Mali wins.
RwandaRwanda wins.6%
What has to happen
Rwanda wins.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand.

See all fine print

If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, the market settles as "No".

Price chart

Yes 6%No 94%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 32 points in about 15 minutes, from 6.5¢ to 38.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus21m ago
The price fell 25 points in about 15 minutes, from 31.5¢ to 6.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus56m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles NoNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Only the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time count; extra time and penalties are ignored, so a draw after 90 minutes settles No on a team-to-win contract. Deadline: Fri, Nov 13, 2026, 2:00 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If Rwanda wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".”
“If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that…”
“If a result is awarded by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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