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US Elections

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate ?

18% say yes

Down 8 points today.

Polymarket lists November 3, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until March 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 18¢ means about an 18% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesThe person named in the question wins the election.18%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by March 31, 2027.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.82%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 4.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 22.5¢ to 18.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls9m ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as written, time zone not statedSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC; official certification if they do not. Calls races on and after election night. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with no time zone stated for the deadline. Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

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