Other

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?

32% say yes

Up 4 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 32¢ means about a 32% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.32%
What has to happen
Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.68%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 32%No 68%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 4.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 34.5¢ to 30¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus1h ago
The price rose 5.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 30¢ to 35¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus2h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the date it takes effect

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
47m ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and…”
“The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also…”
“An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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