Other

Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?

55% say yes

Down 28 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 55¢ means about a 55% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.55%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.45%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

If someone disputes the result on Polymarket, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Kalshi settles by its own rulebook.

Price chart

Yes 55%No 45%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 3.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 60.5¢ to 57.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus4h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 4 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 4 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
2h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
3h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
3h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment…”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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