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Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?

97% say Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M

Up 19 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 2, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 97¢ means about a 97% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 2, 2026), the answer is No.

Possible results

Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10MThis result happens.97%
What has to happen
Total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15MThis result happens.91%
What has to happen
Total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20MThis result happens.86%
What has to happen
Total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30MThis result happens.68%
What has to happen
Total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40MThis result happens.48%
What has to happen
Total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60MThis result happens.28%
What has to happen
Total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

The one trap

If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of trusted news reports may be used.

See all fine print

If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, the market settles as "No".

Price chart

Yes 86%No 14%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 89.5¢ to 86¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus1h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: stated conditionNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Deadline: Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (85.5¢ → 85.5¢); last-hour volume 10.6× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $7.6k bid / $8.4k ask.
46m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the headline pool total displayed on the official 1W Token Sale page at https://1wtoken.com/ (the "US$[amount] of US$[allocation]" figure). Total commitments refers to this gross pool amount, including any oversubscription above the sale's allocation, and not the final allocated amount after excess deposits are refunded. If the sale page displays only a net or allocated figure rather than the gross pool amount, official announcements of the gross amount from 1W will be used. The sale accepts deposits in US dollar stablecoins (USDC), which are counted as US dollars at 1:1. If the displayed figure exceeds the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the specified value will not qualify. If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W (https://x.com/1winToken) may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market will resolve to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". If the sale is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution, provided the displayed figure exceeds the specified value before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

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