Geopolitics

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)

<1% say yes

Down 5 points today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price under 1¢ means less than a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: There is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.<1%
What has to happen
There is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.>99%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes <1%No >99%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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