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Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?

30% say yes

Up 1 point today.

Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 30¢ means about a 30% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: A new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM .

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.30%
What has to happen
A new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.70%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

Price chart

Yes 30%No 70%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.”
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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