Other
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?
77% say yes
Down 2 points today.
Decided by major news reports, by November 19, 2026.
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 77¢ means about a 77% chance.
Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 19, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date ().
Possible results
YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.77%
What has to happen
Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.23%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 19, 2026.
The one trap
The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.
