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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?

55% say yes

Up 20 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 55¢ means about a 55% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.55%
What has to happen
Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.45%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 55%No 45%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 7.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 61¢ to 53.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus26m ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Tue, Nov 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified…”
“The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and…”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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