Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Explain it simply

Built from this market’s own rules and prices. It is research, not a recommendation.

1.What this market is really asking

This market asks: next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No.

2.Words to know

End date: The last day the rules allow for the result. Some markets settle earlier, and some rules allow extra time.
ET: Eastern Time, the time zone of New York.
Share: One unit of a market. A share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Price in cents (¢): Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and work like a percent chance. 94¢ means the crowd gives it about a 94% chance.
Official source: The organization named in the rules whose report decides the result.
Settle (resolve): When a market is decided and shares pay out. Venues use “resolve” to mean the same thing.
UMA: The system Polymarket uses to confirm results. If someone disputes a result, people who hold UMA tokens vote on it.
Polymarket: The prediction market whose prices we show. Its main site is not available to US residents.
Kalshi: A US exchange that lists similar markets. It is regulated by the CFTC, and its rules can differ from Polymarket’s.
CFTC: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US government agency that oversees exchanges like Kalshi.
Credible reporting: When major news outlets agree on a result. Polymarket often uses this before official counts are final.

3.Each possible result

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026Crowd’s chance: about 80%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026Crowd’s chance: about 36%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026Crowd’s chance: about 16%
What it would mean: This result happens.
What has to happen: OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).

Each result is its own market, so these chances come from separate prices and may not add up to exactly 100%.

4.How the payout works

Each Yes share pays $1 if Yes wins and $0 if not. A No share is the other way around.

At 80¢, the crowd gives Yes about a 80% chance.

Prices change all the time. This is a snapshot of what traders think, not a forecast from us.

5.Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

6.Fine print in plain English

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 80% on “Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026”.

It fell 7 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

Live price & chartPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, the price history and every real price move here.

See Pro

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

Announced

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026 (date from market title). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus

Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Medium 30

Who settles it (official source)

Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)

Deadline and time zone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026 (date from market title) America/New_York

What counts as Yes

AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…ce. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise…"

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.