Other

New pandemic in 2026?

3% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM , under the rules.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 3¢ means about a 3% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.3%
What has to happen
The World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.97%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 3%No 97%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo source named

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026…”
“The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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