US Elections

JD Vance resigns as Vice President by December 31, 2026?

4% say yes

Down 2 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 4¢ means about a 4% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Yes wins if: J.D.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.4%
What has to happen
J.D.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.96%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 4%No 96%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

settles on the official announcement

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market resolves to “Yes” if J.D. Vance’s resignation as U.S. Vice President is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.”
“If J.D. Vance formally resigns as U.S. Vice President before the end of his scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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