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Ioannis Xilas vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly: who will win?

>99% say Gilles Arnaud Bailly wins

Prices last updated 40 minutes ago. They normally update every minute.

No price change recorded today yet.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

If postponed, it can stay open until Nov 21, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Ioannis Xilas and Gilles Arnaud Bailly play a match in M25 Heraklion, scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 3:00 AM .

Possible results

  • Ioannis XilasThe Ioannis Xilas win and moves on.<1%

    What has to happen

    Ioannis Xilas advances against Gilles Arnaud Bailly.

  • Gilles Arnaud BaillyGilles Arnaud Bailly wins and moves on.>99%

    What has to happen

    Gilles Arnaud Bailly advances against Ioannis Xilas.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 21, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print
  • If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
  • If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Recorded moves

  • The price fell 15.4 points in about 15 minutes, from 15.5¢ to 0.1¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

  • The price fell 53.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 57.5¢ to 4¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus3h ago

  • The price fell 30.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 93¢ to 62.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Source: Credible-reporting consensus4h ago

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the official resultNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 AM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading rose to about 5 times the usual hourly amount.

    1h ago

  • Trading rose to about 7 times the usual hourly amount.

    2h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF).”
  • “If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 21, 2026, 11:59…”
  • “If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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