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Dmitry Popko vs James MacKinlay: who will win?

>99% say James MacKinlay wins

No price change recorded today yet.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

Polymarket lists November 6, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until November 13, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Dmitry Popko and James MacKinlay play a match at the M25 Malta, scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM .

Possible results

  • Dmitry PopkoDmitry Popko wins and moves on.<1%

    What has to happen

    Dmitry Popko advances against James MacKinlay.

  • James MacKinlayJames MacKinlay wins and moves on.>99%

    What has to happen

    James MacKinlay advances against Dmitry Popko.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 13, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print
  • If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
  • If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed; cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Fri, Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF).”
  • “If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59…”
  • “If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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