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Luca Castagnola vs Jake Fellows: who will win?

>99% say the Jake Fellows win

Down 51 points today.

Match time has passed. Waiting for the official result.

Polymarket lists November 4, 2026 as the end date, but the rules allow until November 11, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

Luca Castagnola and Jake Fellows play a match at the M15 Selva Gardena, scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 8:00 AM .

Possible results

Luca CastagnolaLuca Castagnola wins and moves on.<1%
What has to happen
Luca Castagnola advances against Jake Fellows.
Jake FellowsThe Jake Fellows win and moves on.>99%
What has to happen
Jake Fellows advances against Luca Castagnola.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 11, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print

If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.

Price chart

Luca Castagnola <1%Jake Fellows >99%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price fell 43 points in about 15 minutes, from 44.5¢ to 1.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

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The details

Rule note: full game including overtimeNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (20/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed; cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 13 times the usual hourly amount).
1h ago
Trading picked up (about 13 times the usual hourly amount).
2h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castagnola and Jake Fellows in the M15 Selva Gardena, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castagnola' if Luca Castagnola advances against Jake Fellows. This market will resolve to 'Jake Fellows' if Jake Fellows advances against Luca Castagnola. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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