Other
Israeli airspace closed by November 30, 2026?
20% say yes
Up 8 points today.
Decided by official government/military statements plus a credible reporting, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 20¢ means about a 20% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Possible results
YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.20%
What has to happen
Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.80%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The one trap
(i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
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